Inattentive professional forecasters
Using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters to characterize expectations at the micro-level, we emphasize two new facts: forecasters (i) fail to systematically update their forecasts and (ii) disagree even when updating. It is moreover found that forecasters have predictable forecast errors. Th...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Published: |
2013
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/55886 |
| _version_ | 1848759732690485248 |
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| author | Le Bihan, Herve Andrade, P. |
| author_facet | Le Bihan, Herve Andrade, P. |
| author_sort | Le Bihan, Herve |
| building | Curtin Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | Using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters to characterize expectations at the micro-level, we emphasize two new facts: forecasters (i) fail to systematically update their forecasts and (ii) disagree even when updating. It is moreover found that forecasters have predictable forecast errors. These facts are qualitatively supportive of recent models of inattention and suggest a setup where agents imperfectly process information due to both sticky information à la Mankiw-Reis, and noisy information à la Sims. However, building and estimating such an expectation model, we find that it cannot quantitatively replicate the error and disagreement observed in the data. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T10:04:34Z |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | curtin-20.500.11937-55886 |
| institution | Curtin University Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T10:04:34Z |
| publishDate | 2013 |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | curtin-20.500.11937-558862018-03-29T09:09:01Z Inattentive professional forecasters Le Bihan, Herve Andrade, P. Using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters to characterize expectations at the micro-level, we emphasize two new facts: forecasters (i) fail to systematically update their forecasts and (ii) disagree even when updating. It is moreover found that forecasters have predictable forecast errors. These facts are qualitatively supportive of recent models of inattention and suggest a setup where agents imperfectly process information due to both sticky information à la Mankiw-Reis, and noisy information à la Sims. However, building and estimating such an expectation model, we find that it cannot quantitatively replicate the error and disagreement observed in the data. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. 2013 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/55886 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2013.08.005 restricted |
| spellingShingle | Le Bihan, Herve Andrade, P. Inattentive professional forecasters |
| title | Inattentive professional forecasters |
| title_full | Inattentive professional forecasters |
| title_fullStr | Inattentive professional forecasters |
| title_full_unstemmed | Inattentive professional forecasters |
| title_short | Inattentive professional forecasters |
| title_sort | inattentive professional forecasters |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/55886 |