Probabilistic longevity estimate for the LUSI mud volcano, East Java
A new method for estimating the duration of a mud volcano eruption is applied to the LUSI mud volcano in East Java. The estimate is based upon carbonates at depths in the range 2500-3500 m being the water source, with an estimated area of 100-600 km2, thickness of 0.2-1.0 km, porosity of 0.15-0.25,...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Published: |
Geological Society Publishing House
2011
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/53279 |
| _version_ | 1848759107112140800 |
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| author | Davies, R. Mathias, S. Swarbrick, R. Tingay, Mark |
| author_facet | Davies, R. Mathias, S. Swarbrick, R. Tingay, Mark |
| author_sort | Davies, R. |
| building | Curtin Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | A new method for estimating the duration of a mud volcano eruption is applied to the LUSI mud volcano in East Java. The estimate is based upon carbonates at depths in the range 2500-3500 m being the water source, with an estimated area of 100-600 km2, thickness of 0.2-1.0 km, porosity of 0.15-0.25, an initial pressure between 13.9 and 17.6 MPa, and a separate, shallower source of mud (c. 1200-1800 m depth). The resulting 50 percentile for the time it takes for flow to decline to <0.1 Ml day-1 is 26 years. By analogy with natural mud volcanoes it can be expected to continue to flow at lower rates for thousands of years. Assuming subsidence rates of between 1 and 5 cm day-1, land surface subsidence of between c. 95 and c. 475 m can be expected to develop within the 26 year time period. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T09:54:37Z |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | curtin-20.500.11937-53279 |
| institution | Curtin University Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T09:54:37Z |
| publishDate | 2011 |
| publisher | Geological Society Publishing House |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | curtin-20.500.11937-532792017-10-20T04:01:45Z Probabilistic longevity estimate for the LUSI mud volcano, East Java Davies, R. Mathias, S. Swarbrick, R. Tingay, Mark A new method for estimating the duration of a mud volcano eruption is applied to the LUSI mud volcano in East Java. The estimate is based upon carbonates at depths in the range 2500-3500 m being the water source, with an estimated area of 100-600 km2, thickness of 0.2-1.0 km, porosity of 0.15-0.25, an initial pressure between 13.9 and 17.6 MPa, and a separate, shallower source of mud (c. 1200-1800 m depth). The resulting 50 percentile for the time it takes for flow to decline to <0.1 Ml day-1 is 26 years. By analogy with natural mud volcanoes it can be expected to continue to flow at lower rates for thousands of years. Assuming subsidence rates of between 1 and 5 cm day-1, land surface subsidence of between c. 95 and c. 475 m can be expected to develop within the 26 year time period. 2011 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/53279 10.1144/0016-76492010-129 Geological Society Publishing House restricted |
| spellingShingle | Davies, R. Mathias, S. Swarbrick, R. Tingay, Mark Probabilistic longevity estimate for the LUSI mud volcano, East Java |
| title | Probabilistic longevity estimate for the LUSI mud volcano, East Java |
| title_full | Probabilistic longevity estimate for the LUSI mud volcano, East Java |
| title_fullStr | Probabilistic longevity estimate for the LUSI mud volcano, East Java |
| title_full_unstemmed | Probabilistic longevity estimate for the LUSI mud volcano, East Java |
| title_short | Probabilistic longevity estimate for the LUSI mud volcano, East Java |
| title_sort | probabilistic longevity estimate for the lusi mud volcano, east java |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/53279 |