Probabilistic longevity estimate for the LUSI mud volcano, East Java

A new method for estimating the duration of a mud volcano eruption is applied to the LUSI mud volcano in East Java. The estimate is based upon carbonates at depths in the range 2500-3500 m being the water source, with an estimated area of 100-600 km2, thickness of 0.2-1.0 km, porosity of 0.15-0.25,...

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Main Authors: Davies, R., Mathias, S., Swarbrick, R., Tingay, Mark
Format: Journal Article
Published: Geological Society Publishing House 2011
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/53279
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author Davies, R.
Mathias, S.
Swarbrick, R.
Tingay, Mark
author_facet Davies, R.
Mathias, S.
Swarbrick, R.
Tingay, Mark
author_sort Davies, R.
building Curtin Institutional Repository
collection Online Access
description A new method for estimating the duration of a mud volcano eruption is applied to the LUSI mud volcano in East Java. The estimate is based upon carbonates at depths in the range 2500-3500 m being the water source, with an estimated area of 100-600 km2, thickness of 0.2-1.0 km, porosity of 0.15-0.25, an initial pressure between 13.9 and 17.6 MPa, and a separate, shallower source of mud (c. 1200-1800 m depth). The resulting 50 percentile for the time it takes for flow to decline to <0.1 Ml day-1 is 26 years. By analogy with natural mud volcanoes it can be expected to continue to flow at lower rates for thousands of years. Assuming subsidence rates of between 1 and 5 cm day-1, land surface subsidence of between c. 95 and c. 475 m can be expected to develop within the 26 year time period.
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spelling curtin-20.500.11937-532792017-10-20T04:01:45Z Probabilistic longevity estimate for the LUSI mud volcano, East Java Davies, R. Mathias, S. Swarbrick, R. Tingay, Mark A new method for estimating the duration of a mud volcano eruption is applied to the LUSI mud volcano in East Java. The estimate is based upon carbonates at depths in the range 2500-3500 m being the water source, with an estimated area of 100-600 km2, thickness of 0.2-1.0 km, porosity of 0.15-0.25, an initial pressure between 13.9 and 17.6 MPa, and a separate, shallower source of mud (c. 1200-1800 m depth). The resulting 50 percentile for the time it takes for flow to decline to <0.1 Ml day-1 is 26 years. By analogy with natural mud volcanoes it can be expected to continue to flow at lower rates for thousands of years. Assuming subsidence rates of between 1 and 5 cm day-1, land surface subsidence of between c. 95 and c. 475 m can be expected to develop within the 26 year time period. 2011 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/53279 10.1144/0016-76492010-129 Geological Society Publishing House restricted
spellingShingle Davies, R.
Mathias, S.
Swarbrick, R.
Tingay, Mark
Probabilistic longevity estimate for the LUSI mud volcano, East Java
title Probabilistic longevity estimate for the LUSI mud volcano, East Java
title_full Probabilistic longevity estimate for the LUSI mud volcano, East Java
title_fullStr Probabilistic longevity estimate for the LUSI mud volcano, East Java
title_full_unstemmed Probabilistic longevity estimate for the LUSI mud volcano, East Java
title_short Probabilistic longevity estimate for the LUSI mud volcano, East Java
title_sort probabilistic longevity estimate for the lusi mud volcano, east java
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/53279