Can gold prices forecast the Australian dollar movements?

This paper explores whether gold prices have a reliable out-of-sample relationship with the Australian dollar/US dollar nominal and real exchange rates using daily and quarterly data, respectively, spanning the period 2000–2012. Through an Error Correction Model (ECM), the empirical findings suggest...

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Main Author: Apergis, Nicholas
Format: Journal Article
Published: Elsever 2014
Subjects:
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/4847
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author Apergis, Nicholas
author_facet Apergis, Nicholas
author_sort Apergis, Nicholas
building Curtin Institutional Repository
collection Online Access
description This paper explores whether gold prices have a reliable out-of-sample relationship with the Australian dollar/US dollar nominal and real exchange rates using daily and quarterly data, respectively, spanning the period 2000–2012. Through an Error Correction Model (ECM), the empirical findings suggest that the out-of-sample predictive ability is strong and robust across short- and long-run horizons. The results could offer informational availability for monetary policymakers, hedge fund managers and international portfolio managers. They also provide additional support to the hypothesis that both markets are driven by the same information sets.
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institution Curtin University Malaysia
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spelling curtin-20.500.11937-48472019-02-19T04:26:59Z Can gold prices forecast the Australian dollar movements? Apergis, Nicholas Error Correction Model Australian dollar/US dollar exchange rate Predictive ability Gold prices This paper explores whether gold prices have a reliable out-of-sample relationship with the Australian dollar/US dollar nominal and real exchange rates using daily and quarterly data, respectively, spanning the period 2000–2012. Through an Error Correction Model (ECM), the empirical findings suggest that the out-of-sample predictive ability is strong and robust across short- and long-run horizons. The results could offer informational availability for monetary policymakers, hedge fund managers and international portfolio managers. They also provide additional support to the hypothesis that both markets are driven by the same information sets. 2014 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/4847 10.1016/j.iref.2013.04.004 Elsever fulltext
spellingShingle Error Correction Model
Australian dollar/US dollar exchange rate
Predictive ability
Gold prices
Apergis, Nicholas
Can gold prices forecast the Australian dollar movements?
title Can gold prices forecast the Australian dollar movements?
title_full Can gold prices forecast the Australian dollar movements?
title_fullStr Can gold prices forecast the Australian dollar movements?
title_full_unstemmed Can gold prices forecast the Australian dollar movements?
title_short Can gold prices forecast the Australian dollar movements?
title_sort can gold prices forecast the australian dollar movements?
topic Error Correction Model
Australian dollar/US dollar exchange rate
Predictive ability
Gold prices
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/4847