Swings in sentiment and stock returns: Evidence from a frontier market

We investigate the impact of noise trader sentiment on the formation of expected returns and volatility in the context of the frontier stock market of Bangladesh. Empirical results based on a GARCH-in-mean framework show that shifts in investor sentiment are significantly positively correlated with...

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Main Authors: Rahman, M., Shien, L., Sadique, Shibley
Format: Journal Article
Published: IACSIT Press 2013
Subjects:
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/47804
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author Rahman, M.
Shien, L.
Sadique, Shibley
author_facet Rahman, M.
Shien, L.
Sadique, Shibley
author_sort Rahman, M.
building Curtin Institutional Repository
collection Online Access
description We investigate the impact of noise trader sentiment on the formation of expected returns and volatility in the context of the frontier stock market of Bangladesh. Empirical results based on a GARCH-in-mean framework show that shifts in investor sentiment are significantly positively correlated with excess market returns. Evidence of this direct impact of changes in sentiment on expected returns is robust across sample periods and alternative measures of sentiment we use in the analysis. In addition, we find that the magnitude of bullish or bearish sentiment changes also exerts an indirect effect on expected returns through its asymmetric influence on the conditional volatility process. Overall, our results suggest that shifts in investor sentiment in the market represent a systematic risk factor that is priced in equilibrium.
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spelling curtin-20.500.11937-478042017-09-13T14:19:01Z Swings in sentiment and stock returns: Evidence from a frontier market Rahman, M. Shien, L. Sadique, Shibley volatility excess returns investor sentiment We investigate the impact of noise trader sentiment on the formation of expected returns and volatility in the context of the frontier stock market of Bangladesh. Empirical results based on a GARCH-in-mean framework show that shifts in investor sentiment are significantly positively correlated with excess market returns. Evidence of this direct impact of changes in sentiment on expected returns is robust across sample periods and alternative measures of sentiment we use in the analysis. In addition, we find that the magnitude of bullish or bearish sentiment changes also exerts an indirect effect on expected returns through its asymmetric influence on the conditional volatility process. Overall, our results suggest that shifts in investor sentiment in the market represent a systematic risk factor that is priced in equilibrium. 2013 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/47804 10.7763/IJTEF.2013.V4.315 IACSIT Press restricted
spellingShingle volatility
excess returns
investor sentiment
Rahman, M.
Shien, L.
Sadique, Shibley
Swings in sentiment and stock returns: Evidence from a frontier market
title Swings in sentiment and stock returns: Evidence from a frontier market
title_full Swings in sentiment and stock returns: Evidence from a frontier market
title_fullStr Swings in sentiment and stock returns: Evidence from a frontier market
title_full_unstemmed Swings in sentiment and stock returns: Evidence from a frontier market
title_short Swings in sentiment and stock returns: Evidence from a frontier market
title_sort swings in sentiment and stock returns: evidence from a frontier market
topic volatility
excess returns
investor sentiment
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/47804