Analyzing the effects of uncertainties on the economic performance of a chemical process plant using a probabilistic optimization technique

This work presents a mathematical optimization model based on a probabilistic approach to clearly identify the effects material flow uncertainties, from both plant inlet and outlet, on the overall economic performance of a plant. Accordingly, two case studies have been taken for an existing gas proc...

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Main Authors: Woldetensay, Mesfin Getu, Mahadzir, S., Lee, M.
Other Authors: Ian David Lockhart Bogle
Format: Conference Paper
Published: Elsevier 2012
Subjects:
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/38564
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author Woldetensay, Mesfin Getu
Mahadzir, S.
Lee, M.
author2 Ian David Lockhart Bogle
author_facet Ian David Lockhart Bogle
Woldetensay, Mesfin Getu
Mahadzir, S.
Lee, M.
author_sort Woldetensay, Mesfin Getu
building Curtin Institutional Repository
collection Online Access
description This work presents a mathematical optimization model based on a probabilistic approach to clearly identify the effects material flow uncertainties, from both plant inlet and outlet, on the overall economic performance of a plant. Accordingly, two case studies have been taken for an existing gas processing plant. Each profit analysis for the case studies is made with respect to the reliability of holding the process constraints. Based on this, a user-defined probability or confidence level has been assigned for the constraints between the ranges of 50% to 100%. There is a significant profit change of more than 85.8 % for the plant inlet uncertainty case as the confidence level increase from 96% to 100%. However, the profit change for uncertainty from the plant outlet is much less (1.93%) compared to that of the plant inlet for the same confidence level interval taken. The result indicates that much emphasis should be given to those uncertainties from the plant inlet which has a major effect in the overall economic performance of the plant performance.
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institution Curtin University Malaysia
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last_indexed 2025-11-14T08:54:58Z
publishDate 2012
publisher Elsevier
recordtype eprints
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spelling curtin-20.500.11937-385642023-02-07T08:01:20Z Analyzing the effects of uncertainties on the economic performance of a chemical process plant using a probabilistic optimization technique Woldetensay, Mesfin Getu Mahadzir, S. Lee, M. Ian David Lockhart Bogle Michael Fairweather Uncertainty HYSYS Probabilistic Profit GAMS This work presents a mathematical optimization model based on a probabilistic approach to clearly identify the effects material flow uncertainties, from both plant inlet and outlet, on the overall economic performance of a plant. Accordingly, two case studies have been taken for an existing gas processing plant. Each profit analysis for the case studies is made with respect to the reliability of holding the process constraints. Based on this, a user-defined probability or confidence level has been assigned for the constraints between the ranges of 50% to 100%. There is a significant profit change of more than 85.8 % for the plant inlet uncertainty case as the confidence level increase from 96% to 100%. However, the profit change for uncertainty from the plant outlet is much less (1.93%) compared to that of the plant inlet for the same confidence level interval taken. The result indicates that much emphasis should be given to those uncertainties from the plant inlet which has a major effect in the overall economic performance of the plant performance. 2012 Conference Paper http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/38564 10.1016/B978-0-444-59520-1.50025-7 Elsevier restricted
spellingShingle Uncertainty
HYSYS
Probabilistic
Profit
GAMS
Woldetensay, Mesfin Getu
Mahadzir, S.
Lee, M.
Analyzing the effects of uncertainties on the economic performance of a chemical process plant using a probabilistic optimization technique
title Analyzing the effects of uncertainties on the economic performance of a chemical process plant using a probabilistic optimization technique
title_full Analyzing the effects of uncertainties on the economic performance of a chemical process plant using a probabilistic optimization technique
title_fullStr Analyzing the effects of uncertainties on the economic performance of a chemical process plant using a probabilistic optimization technique
title_full_unstemmed Analyzing the effects of uncertainties on the economic performance of a chemical process plant using a probabilistic optimization technique
title_short Analyzing the effects of uncertainties on the economic performance of a chemical process plant using a probabilistic optimization technique
title_sort analyzing the effects of uncertainties on the economic performance of a chemical process plant using a probabilistic optimization technique
topic Uncertainty
HYSYS
Probabilistic
Profit
GAMS
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/38564