The role of political uncertainty in Australian financial markets

Within the developed world, recent Australian political history is uniquely turbulent. This situation invokes indecision regarding investment decisions in both the real economy and the financial markets. This paper explores the relationship between uncertainty in Australian federal election polling...

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Main Author: Smales, Lee
Format: Journal Article
Published: Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Asia 2015
Subjects:
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/38374
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author Smales, Lee
author_facet Smales, Lee
author_sort Smales, Lee
building Curtin Institutional Repository
collection Online Access
description Within the developed world, recent Australian political history is uniquely turbulent. This situation invokes indecision regarding investment decisions in both the real economy and the financial markets. This paper explores the relationship between uncertainty in Australian federal election polling and resulting financial market uncertainty. Empirical evidence suggests that increasing (decreasing) levels of uncertainty around the election result induce higher (lower) levels of uncertainty in financial markets. The effect is more pronounced as polling day approaches. Industry-level analysis suggests that the base materials sector is most significantly affected by election uncertainty in Australia
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format Journal Article
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institution Curtin University Malaysia
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publishDate 2015
publisher Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Asia
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spelling curtin-20.500.11937-383742017-09-13T15:35:35Z The role of political uncertainty in Australian financial markets Smales, Lee Investor sentiment Political uncertainty Exchange-traded options Implied volatility Financial markets Within the developed world, recent Australian political history is uniquely turbulent. This situation invokes indecision regarding investment decisions in both the real economy and the financial markets. This paper explores the relationship between uncertainty in Australian federal election polling and resulting financial market uncertainty. Empirical evidence suggests that increasing (decreasing) levels of uncertainty around the election result induce higher (lower) levels of uncertainty in financial markets. The effect is more pronounced as polling day approaches. Industry-level analysis suggests that the base materials sector is most significantly affected by election uncertainty in Australia 2015 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/38374 10.1111/acfi.12107 Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Asia fulltext
spellingShingle Investor sentiment
Political uncertainty
Exchange-traded options
Implied volatility
Financial markets
Smales, Lee
The role of political uncertainty in Australian financial markets
title The role of political uncertainty in Australian financial markets
title_full The role of political uncertainty in Australian financial markets
title_fullStr The role of political uncertainty in Australian financial markets
title_full_unstemmed The role of political uncertainty in Australian financial markets
title_short The role of political uncertainty in Australian financial markets
title_sort role of political uncertainty in australian financial markets
topic Investor sentiment
Political uncertainty
Exchange-traded options
Implied volatility
Financial markets
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/38374