The role of political uncertainty in Australian financial markets
Within the developed world, recent Australian political history is uniquely turbulent. This situation invokes indecision regarding investment decisions in both the real economy and the financial markets. This paper explores the relationship between uncertainty in Australian federal election polling...
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Published: |
Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Asia
2015
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/38374 |
| _version_ | 1848755303460372480 |
|---|---|
| author | Smales, Lee |
| author_facet | Smales, Lee |
| author_sort | Smales, Lee |
| building | Curtin Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | Within the developed world, recent Australian political history is uniquely turbulent. This situation invokes indecision regarding investment decisions in both the real economy and the financial markets. This paper explores the relationship between uncertainty in Australian federal election polling and resulting financial market uncertainty. Empirical evidence suggests that increasing (decreasing) levels of uncertainty around the election result induce higher (lower) levels of uncertainty in financial markets. The effect is more pronounced as polling day approaches. Industry-level analysis suggests that the base materials sector is most significantly affected by election uncertainty in Australia |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T08:54:10Z |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | curtin-20.500.11937-38374 |
| institution | Curtin University Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T08:54:10Z |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| publisher | Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Asia |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | curtin-20.500.11937-383742017-09-13T15:35:35Z The role of political uncertainty in Australian financial markets Smales, Lee Investor sentiment Political uncertainty Exchange-traded options Implied volatility Financial markets Within the developed world, recent Australian political history is uniquely turbulent. This situation invokes indecision regarding investment decisions in both the real economy and the financial markets. This paper explores the relationship between uncertainty in Australian federal election polling and resulting financial market uncertainty. Empirical evidence suggests that increasing (decreasing) levels of uncertainty around the election result induce higher (lower) levels of uncertainty in financial markets. The effect is more pronounced as polling day approaches. Industry-level analysis suggests that the base materials sector is most significantly affected by election uncertainty in Australia 2015 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/38374 10.1111/acfi.12107 Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Asia fulltext |
| spellingShingle | Investor sentiment Political uncertainty Exchange-traded options Implied volatility Financial markets Smales, Lee The role of political uncertainty in Australian financial markets |
| title | The role of political uncertainty in Australian financial markets |
| title_full | The role of political uncertainty in Australian financial markets |
| title_fullStr | The role of political uncertainty in Australian financial markets |
| title_full_unstemmed | The role of political uncertainty in Australian financial markets |
| title_short | The role of political uncertainty in Australian financial markets |
| title_sort | role of political uncertainty in australian financial markets |
| topic | Investor sentiment Political uncertainty Exchange-traded options Implied volatility Financial markets |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/38374 |