Currency option pricing and realised volatility

Volatility is a key parameter in currency option pricing. This paper examines alternative specifications ofthe volatility input to the Black-Scholes option pricing procedure. The focus is the relative performance ofimplied, realized, and GARCH-based models as predictors of market volatility to forec...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Manzur, Meher, Hoque, A., Poitras, G.
Format: Journal Article
Published: Central Connecticut State University, Department of Finance 2010
Subjects:
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/35929
_version_ 1848754628879974400
author Manzur, Meher
Hoque, A.
Poitras, G.
author_facet Manzur, Meher
Hoque, A.
Poitras, G.
author_sort Manzur, Meher
building Curtin Institutional Repository
collection Online Access
description Volatility is a key parameter in currency option pricing. This paper examines alternative specifications ofthe volatility input to the Black-Scholes option pricing procedure. The focus is the relative performance ofimplied, realized, and GARCH-based models as predictors of market volatility to forecast currency optionsprices. Using exchange-traded, daily and intra-daily data for three major European currencies, the results indicate that the realized volatility model tends to outperform the other two specifications, both in-sample and out-of-sample. This result is intuitively appealing and expected to facilitate resolution of other problems in risk management applications.
first_indexed 2025-11-14T08:43:26Z
format Journal Article
id curtin-20.500.11937-35929
institution Curtin University Malaysia
institution_category Local University
last_indexed 2025-11-14T08:43:26Z
publishDate 2010
publisher Central Connecticut State University, Department of Finance
recordtype eprints
repository_type Digital Repository
spelling curtin-20.500.11937-359292017-01-30T13:52:34Z Currency option pricing and realised volatility Manzur, Meher Hoque, A. Poitras, G. European options Synchronicity Realized volatility Exchange-traded Implied volatility Volatility is a key parameter in currency option pricing. This paper examines alternative specifications ofthe volatility input to the Black-Scholes option pricing procedure. The focus is the relative performance ofimplied, realized, and GARCH-based models as predictors of market volatility to forecast currency optionsprices. Using exchange-traded, daily and intra-daily data for three major European currencies, the results indicate that the realized volatility model tends to outperform the other two specifications, both in-sample and out-of-sample. This result is intuitively appealing and expected to facilitate resolution of other problems in risk management applications. 2010 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/35929 Central Connecticut State University, Department of Finance fulltext
spellingShingle European options
Synchronicity
Realized volatility
Exchange-traded
Implied volatility
Manzur, Meher
Hoque, A.
Poitras, G.
Currency option pricing and realised volatility
title Currency option pricing and realised volatility
title_full Currency option pricing and realised volatility
title_fullStr Currency option pricing and realised volatility
title_full_unstemmed Currency option pricing and realised volatility
title_short Currency option pricing and realised volatility
title_sort currency option pricing and realised volatility
topic European options
Synchronicity
Realized volatility
Exchange-traded
Implied volatility
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/35929