Soft information and economic activity: Evidence from the Beige Book
This study employs text-analysis software to analyze the contents of the Federal Reserve Beige Book summary of national economic and business conditions, with a particular focus on the predictive content of the text. We show that the Beige Book language is a good predictor of economic turning points...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2013
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/33060 |
| _version_ | 1848753840751378432 |
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| author | Sadique, Shibley In, F. Veeraraghavan, M. Wachtel, P. |
| author_facet | Sadique, Shibley In, F. Veeraraghavan, M. Wachtel, P. |
| author_sort | Sadique, Shibley |
| building | Curtin Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | This study employs text-analysis software to analyze the contents of the Federal Reserve Beige Book summary of national economic and business conditions, with a particular focus on the predictive content of the text. We show that the Beige Book language is a good predictor of economic turning points as it often provides an early indication of future economic activities. During economic upswings, positive tone becomes more prominent and negative tone becomes less prominent. In addition, this study is the first to document that Beige Book tone affects stock market volatility and trading volume. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T08:30:55Z |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | curtin-20.500.11937-33060 |
| institution | Curtin University Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T08:30:55Z |
| publishDate | 2013 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | curtin-20.500.11937-330602017-09-13T15:28:50Z Soft information and economic activity: Evidence from the Beige Book Sadique, Shibley In, F. Veeraraghavan, M. Wachtel, P. general inquirer textual analysis forecasting economic fluctuations beige book This study employs text-analysis software to analyze the contents of the Federal Reserve Beige Book summary of national economic and business conditions, with a particular focus on the predictive content of the text. We show that the Beige Book language is a good predictor of economic turning points as it often provides an early indication of future economic activities. During economic upswings, positive tone becomes more prominent and negative tone becomes less prominent. In addition, this study is the first to document that Beige Book tone affects stock market volatility and trading volume. 2013 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/33060 10.1016/j.jmacro.2013.01.004 Elsevier restricted |
| spellingShingle | general inquirer textual analysis forecasting economic fluctuations beige book Sadique, Shibley In, F. Veeraraghavan, M. Wachtel, P. Soft information and economic activity: Evidence from the Beige Book |
| title | Soft information and economic activity: Evidence from the Beige Book |
| title_full | Soft information and economic activity: Evidence from the Beige Book |
| title_fullStr | Soft information and economic activity: Evidence from the Beige Book |
| title_full_unstemmed | Soft information and economic activity: Evidence from the Beige Book |
| title_short | Soft information and economic activity: Evidence from the Beige Book |
| title_sort | soft information and economic activity: evidence from the beige book |
| topic | general inquirer textual analysis forecasting economic fluctuations beige book |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/33060 |