A score for the prediction of cardiovascular events in the hypertensive aged
Background: With few exceptions, tools used to estimate cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in those without prior events are based mainly on data from middle-aged subjects. Given the ever increasing number of older people, many with hypertension, a risk score relevant to this group is warranted. Our...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Published: |
2012
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/31264 |
| _version_ | 1848753329442652160 |
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| author | Nelson, M. Ramsay, E. Ryan, P. Willson, K. Tonkin, A. Wing, L. Simons, L. Reid, Christopher |
| author_facet | Nelson, M. Ramsay, E. Ryan, P. Willson, K. Tonkin, A. Wing, L. Simons, L. Reid, Christopher |
| author_sort | Nelson, M. |
| building | Curtin Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | Background: With few exceptions, tools used to estimate cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in those without prior events are based mainly on data from middle-aged subjects. Given the ever increasing number of older people, many with hypertension, a risk score relevant to this group is warranted. Our aim was to develop a cardiovascular risk equation suitable for risk prediction in elderly, hypertensive populations. Methods We utilized cardiovascular end point data from 4.1 years median follow-up in 5,426 hypertensive subjects without previous CVD from the Second Australian National Blood Pressure Study (ANBP2). Our risk model, based on Cox regression, was developed using 75% of subjects without evident CVD (n = 4,072), randomly selected and stratified by age and gender, and internally validated using the remaining 25%. The model was also externally validated against the Dubbo Study dataset. Results The final model included sex, age, physical activity in the 2 weeks prior to entry into study, family history, use of anticoagulants, centrally acting antihypertensive agents or diabetes medication, and an interaction term for sex and diabetes medication. The C-statistic was 0.65 (0.62–0.67) for our predictive model on the model development dataset and 0.62 (0.57–0.67) on the internal validation dataset. The Dubbo Data C-statistic for CVD was 0.68 (95% CI 0.65–0.71). Conclusions All models performed similarly. Because of greater ease of implementation, we recommend that existing algorithms be extended into older age groups. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T08:22:47Z |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | curtin-20.500.11937-31264 |
| institution | Curtin University Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T08:22:47Z |
| publishDate | 2012 |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | curtin-20.500.11937-312642017-09-13T15:12:27Z A score for the prediction of cardiovascular events in the hypertensive aged Nelson, M. Ramsay, E. Ryan, P. Willson, K. Tonkin, A. Wing, L. Simons, L. Reid, Christopher Background: With few exceptions, tools used to estimate cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in those without prior events are based mainly on data from middle-aged subjects. Given the ever increasing number of older people, many with hypertension, a risk score relevant to this group is warranted. Our aim was to develop a cardiovascular risk equation suitable for risk prediction in elderly, hypertensive populations. Methods We utilized cardiovascular end point data from 4.1 years median follow-up in 5,426 hypertensive subjects without previous CVD from the Second Australian National Blood Pressure Study (ANBP2). Our risk model, based on Cox regression, was developed using 75% of subjects without evident CVD (n = 4,072), randomly selected and stratified by age and gender, and internally validated using the remaining 25%. The model was also externally validated against the Dubbo Study dataset. Results The final model included sex, age, physical activity in the 2 weeks prior to entry into study, family history, use of anticoagulants, centrally acting antihypertensive agents or diabetes medication, and an interaction term for sex and diabetes medication. The C-statistic was 0.65 (0.62–0.67) for our predictive model on the model development dataset and 0.62 (0.57–0.67) on the internal validation dataset. The Dubbo Data C-statistic for CVD was 0.68 (95% CI 0.65–0.71). Conclusions All models performed similarly. Because of greater ease of implementation, we recommend that existing algorithms be extended into older age groups. 2012 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/31264 10.1038/ajh.2011.192 unknown |
| spellingShingle | Nelson, M. Ramsay, E. Ryan, P. Willson, K. Tonkin, A. Wing, L. Simons, L. Reid, Christopher A score for the prediction of cardiovascular events in the hypertensive aged |
| title | A score for the prediction of cardiovascular events in the hypertensive aged |
| title_full | A score for the prediction of cardiovascular events in the hypertensive aged |
| title_fullStr | A score for the prediction of cardiovascular events in the hypertensive aged |
| title_full_unstemmed | A score for the prediction of cardiovascular events in the hypertensive aged |
| title_short | A score for the prediction of cardiovascular events in the hypertensive aged |
| title_sort | score for the prediction of cardiovascular events in the hypertensive aged |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/31264 |