Do Market Fundamentals Determine the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate?

The study searches for an optimal Dollar–Euro exchange rate policy for the US and the Euro Area (EA) countries. To achieve this, it explores the causal links between the US Dollar–Euro exchange rate and three key macroeconomic variables. The empirical investigation is carried out in an Error Correct...

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Main Authors: Apergis, Nicholas, Zestos, G., Shaltayev, D.
Format: Journal Article
Published: Elsevier Inc. 2012
Subjects:
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/31149
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author Apergis, Nicholas
Zestos, G.
Shaltayev, D.
author_facet Apergis, Nicholas
Zestos, G.
Shaltayev, D.
author_sort Apergis, Nicholas
building Curtin Institutional Repository
collection Online Access
description The study searches for an optimal Dollar–Euro exchange rate policy for the US and the Euro Area (EA) countries. To achieve this, it explores the causal links between the US Dollar–Euro exchange rate and three key macroeconomic variables. The empirical investigation is carried out in an Error Correction Vector Autoregressive (ECVAR) framework based on the theory of cointegration and error-correction representation of cointegrated variables. The results provide evidence in favor of the presence of a long-run relationship between the exchange rate and the spread between US and EA (Eurozone) interest rates. With respect to the direction of causality, the empirical findings show that in the long and short-run there is a uni-directional causal relationship between interest-rate spreads and the US Dollar–Euro exchange rate. This result constitutes a strong message for policy advising to fiscal and monetary authorities on both sides of the Atlantic, and beyond.
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publishDate 2012
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spelling curtin-20.500.11937-311492017-09-13T15:11:16Z Do Market Fundamentals Determine the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate? Apergis, Nicholas Zestos, G. Shaltayev, D. Causality tests US Dollar–Euro exchange rate Macroeconomic factors Error Correction Vector Autoregressive model The study searches for an optimal Dollar–Euro exchange rate policy for the US and the Euro Area (EA) countries. To achieve this, it explores the causal links between the US Dollar–Euro exchange rate and three key macroeconomic variables. The empirical investigation is carried out in an Error Correction Vector Autoregressive (ECVAR) framework based on the theory of cointegration and error-correction representation of cointegrated variables. The results provide evidence in favor of the presence of a long-run relationship between the exchange rate and the spread between US and EA (Eurozone) interest rates. With respect to the direction of causality, the empirical findings show that in the long and short-run there is a uni-directional causal relationship between interest-rate spreads and the US Dollar–Euro exchange rate. This result constitutes a strong message for policy advising to fiscal and monetary authorities on both sides of the Atlantic, and beyond. 2012 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/31149 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2011.10.003 Elsevier Inc. restricted
spellingShingle Causality tests
US Dollar–Euro exchange rate
Macroeconomic factors
Error Correction Vector Autoregressive model
Apergis, Nicholas
Zestos, G.
Shaltayev, D.
Do Market Fundamentals Determine the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate?
title Do Market Fundamentals Determine the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate?
title_full Do Market Fundamentals Determine the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate?
title_fullStr Do Market Fundamentals Determine the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate?
title_full_unstemmed Do Market Fundamentals Determine the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate?
title_short Do Market Fundamentals Determine the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate?
title_sort do market fundamentals determine the dollar-euro exchange rate?
topic Causality tests
US Dollar–Euro exchange rate
Macroeconomic factors
Error Correction Vector Autoregressive model
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/31149