An overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting
The global gold market has recently attracted a lot of attention and the price of gold is relatively higher than its historical trend. For mining companies to mitigate risk and uncertainty in gold price fluctuations, make hedging, future investment and evaluation decisions, depend on forecasting fut...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Journal Article |
| Published: |
Pergamon
2010
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/31093 |
| _version_ | 1848753278971543552 |
|---|---|
| author | Shafiee, S. Topal, Erkan |
| author_facet | Shafiee, S. Topal, Erkan |
| author_sort | Shafiee, S. |
| building | Curtin Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | The global gold market has recently attracted a lot of attention and the price of gold is relatively higher than its historical trend. For mining companies to mitigate risk and uncertainty in gold price fluctuations, make hedging, future investment and evaluation decisions, depend on forecasting future price trends. The first section of this paper reviews the world gold market and the historical trend of gold prices from January 1968 to December 2008. This is followed by an investigation into the relationship between gold price and other key influencing variables, such as oil price and global inflation over the last 40 years. The second section applies a modified econometric version of the long-term trend reverting jump and dip diffusion model for forecasting natural-resource commodity prices. This method addresses the deficiencies of previous models, such as jumps and dips as parameters and unit root test for long-term trends. The model proposes that historical data of mineral commodities have three terms to demonstrate fluctuation of prices: a long-term trend reversion component, a diffusion component and a jump or dip component. The model calculates each term individually to estimate future prices of mineral commodities. The study validates the model and estimates the gold price for the next 10 years, based on monthly historical data of nominal gold price. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T08:21:59Z |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | curtin-20.500.11937-31093 |
| institution | Curtin University Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T08:21:59Z |
| publishDate | 2010 |
| publisher | Pergamon |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | curtin-20.500.11937-310932017-09-13T16:07:20Z An overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting Shafiee, S. Topal, Erkan Long-term trend reverting Historical goldmarket Jump and dip diffusion Forecasting mineral prices The global gold market has recently attracted a lot of attention and the price of gold is relatively higher than its historical trend. For mining companies to mitigate risk and uncertainty in gold price fluctuations, make hedging, future investment and evaluation decisions, depend on forecasting future price trends. The first section of this paper reviews the world gold market and the historical trend of gold prices from January 1968 to December 2008. This is followed by an investigation into the relationship between gold price and other key influencing variables, such as oil price and global inflation over the last 40 years. The second section applies a modified econometric version of the long-term trend reverting jump and dip diffusion model for forecasting natural-resource commodity prices. This method addresses the deficiencies of previous models, such as jumps and dips as parameters and unit root test for long-term trends. The model proposes that historical data of mineral commodities have three terms to demonstrate fluctuation of prices: a long-term trend reversion component, a diffusion component and a jump or dip component. The model calculates each term individually to estimate future prices of mineral commodities. The study validates the model and estimates the gold price for the next 10 years, based on monthly historical data of nominal gold price. 2010 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/31093 10.1016/j.resourpol.2010.05.004 Pergamon restricted |
| spellingShingle | Long-term trend reverting Historical goldmarket Jump and dip diffusion Forecasting mineral prices Shafiee, S. Topal, Erkan An overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting |
| title | An overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting |
| title_full | An overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting |
| title_fullStr | An overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting |
| title_full_unstemmed | An overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting |
| title_short | An overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting |
| title_sort | overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting |
| topic | Long-term trend reverting Historical goldmarket Jump and dip diffusion Forecasting mineral prices |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/31093 |