A Probabilistic Method for Forensic Cost Estimating of Infrastructure Projects
To determine the existence of overpricing in infrastructure projects a deterministic approach has been typically used by the Brazilian Federal Police. Yet, Judges have often found it too difficult to determine if overpricing had occurred as contractors have tended to claim their projects were ‘uniqu...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2016
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/29015 |
| _version_ | 1848752690155225088 |
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| author | Signor, R. Love, Peter Olatunji, Oluwole Marchiori, F. Gripp, W. |
| author_facet | Signor, R. Love, Peter Olatunji, Oluwole Marchiori, F. Gripp, W. |
| author_sort | Signor, R. |
| building | Curtin Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | To determine the existence of overpricing in infrastructure projects a deterministic approach has been typically used by the Brazilian Federal Police. Yet, Judges have often found it too difficult to determine if overpricing had occurred as contractors have tended to claim their projects were ‘unique’ and therefore subjected to price increases. Consequently, Judges have had to consider the likelihood of an error occurring, which has more often led to application of the in 'dubio pro reo' principle. To address the pervasive issue of overpricing in Brazilian infrastructure projects, a novel and robust probabilistic method that utilizes ‘distribution fitting’ using empirical data to forensically determine its occurrence is presented. Considering the limited research that has examined forensic cost estimating in construction, it is promulgated that the proposed approach can be used to support the legal fraternities worldwide to obtain a criminal conviction for overpricing of public infrastructure projects. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T08:12:37Z |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | curtin-20.500.11937-29015 |
| institution | Curtin University Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T08:12:37Z |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | curtin-20.500.11937-290152017-09-13T15:51:38Z A Probabilistic Method for Forensic Cost Estimating of Infrastructure Projects Signor, R. Love, Peter Olatunji, Oluwole Marchiori, F. Gripp, W. To determine the existence of overpricing in infrastructure projects a deterministic approach has been typically used by the Brazilian Federal Police. Yet, Judges have often found it too difficult to determine if overpricing had occurred as contractors have tended to claim their projects were ‘unique’ and therefore subjected to price increases. Consequently, Judges have had to consider the likelihood of an error occurring, which has more often led to application of the in 'dubio pro reo' principle. To address the pervasive issue of overpricing in Brazilian infrastructure projects, a novel and robust probabilistic method that utilizes ‘distribution fitting’ using empirical data to forensically determine its occurrence is presented. Considering the limited research that has examined forensic cost estimating in construction, it is promulgated that the proposed approach can be used to support the legal fraternities worldwide to obtain a criminal conviction for overpricing of public infrastructure projects. 2016 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/29015 10.1016/j.apm.2016.05.025 Elsevier restricted |
| spellingShingle | Signor, R. Love, Peter Olatunji, Oluwole Marchiori, F. Gripp, W. A Probabilistic Method for Forensic Cost Estimating of Infrastructure Projects |
| title | A Probabilistic Method for Forensic Cost Estimating of Infrastructure Projects |
| title_full | A Probabilistic Method for Forensic Cost Estimating of Infrastructure Projects |
| title_fullStr | A Probabilistic Method for Forensic Cost Estimating of Infrastructure Projects |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Probabilistic Method for Forensic Cost Estimating of Infrastructure Projects |
| title_short | A Probabilistic Method for Forensic Cost Estimating of Infrastructure Projects |
| title_sort | probabilistic method for forensic cost estimating of infrastructure projects |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/29015 |