Mean-reverting market model: speculative opportunities and non-arbitrage

The paper studies arbitrage opportunities and possible speculative opportunities for diffusion mean-reverting market models. It is shown that the Novikov condition is satisfied for any time interval and for any set of parameters. It is non-trivial because the appreciation rate has Gaussian distribut...

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Main Author: Dokuchaev, Nikolai
Format: Journal Article
Published: Chapman & Hall (Taylor & Francis) 2011
Subjects:
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/28616
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author Dokuchaev, Nikolai
author_facet Dokuchaev, Nikolai
author_sort Dokuchaev, Nikolai
building Curtin Institutional Repository
collection Online Access
description The paper studies arbitrage opportunities and possible speculative opportunities for diffusion mean-reverting market models. It is shown that the Novikov condition is satisfied for any time interval and for any set of parameters. It is non-trivial because the appreciation rate has Gaussian distribution converging to a stationary limit. It follows that the mean-reverting model is arbitrage-free for any finite time interval. Further, it is shown that this model still allows some speculative opportunities: a gain for a wide enough set of expected utilities can be achieved for a strategy that does not require any hypothesis on market parameters and does not use estimation of these parameters.
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publishDate 2011
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spelling curtin-20.500.11937-286162017-09-13T16:07:20Z Mean-reverting market model: speculative opportunities and non-arbitrage Dokuchaev, Nikolai mean-reverting model technical analysis universal portfolio self-financing strategies arbitrage diffusion market The paper studies arbitrage opportunities and possible speculative opportunities for diffusion mean-reverting market models. It is shown that the Novikov condition is satisfied for any time interval and for any set of parameters. It is non-trivial because the appreciation rate has Gaussian distribution converging to a stationary limit. It follows that the mean-reverting model is arbitrage-free for any finite time interval. Further, it is shown that this model still allows some speculative opportunities: a gain for a wide enough set of expected utilities can be achieved for a strategy that does not require any hypothesis on market parameters and does not use estimation of these parameters. 2011 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/28616 10.1080/13504860701255078 Chapman & Hall (Taylor & Francis) restricted
spellingShingle mean-reverting model
technical analysis
universal portfolio
self-financing strategies
arbitrage
diffusion market
Dokuchaev, Nikolai
Mean-reverting market model: speculative opportunities and non-arbitrage
title Mean-reverting market model: speculative opportunities and non-arbitrage
title_full Mean-reverting market model: speculative opportunities and non-arbitrage
title_fullStr Mean-reverting market model: speculative opportunities and non-arbitrage
title_full_unstemmed Mean-reverting market model: speculative opportunities and non-arbitrage
title_short Mean-reverting market model: speculative opportunities and non-arbitrage
title_sort mean-reverting market model: speculative opportunities and non-arbitrage
topic mean-reverting model
technical analysis
universal portfolio
self-financing strategies
arbitrage
diffusion market
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/28616