Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole on dengue incidence in Bangladesh

Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. Several studies examined the role of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in dengue incidence. However, the role of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a coupled oce...

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Main Authors: Banu, S., Guo, Y., Hu, W., Dale, P., Mackenzie, John, Mengersen, K., Tong, S.
Format: Journal Article
Published: 2015
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/25558
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author Banu, S.
Guo, Y.
Hu, W.
Dale, P.
Mackenzie, John
Mengersen, K.
Tong, S.
author_facet Banu, S.
Guo, Y.
Hu, W.
Dale, P.
Mackenzie, John
Mengersen, K.
Tong, S.
author_sort Banu, S.
building Curtin Institutional Repository
collection Online Access
description Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. Several studies examined the role of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in dengue incidence. However, the role of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a coupled ocean atmosphere phenomenon in the Indian Ocean, which controls the summer monsoon rainfall in the Indian region, remains unexplored. Here, we examined the effects of ENSO and IOD on dengue incidence in Bangladesh. According to the wavelet coherence analysis, there was a very weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence, but a highly significant coherence between dengue incidence and local climate variables (temperature and rainfall). However, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) revealed that the association between dengue incidence and ENSO or IOD were comparatively stronger after adjustment for local climate variables, seasonality and trend. The estimated effects were nonlinear for both ENSO and IOD with higher relative risks at higher ENSO and IOD. The weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence might be driven by the stronger effects of local climate variables such as temperature and rainfall. Further research is required to disentangle these effects.
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spelling curtin-20.500.11937-255582017-09-13T15:18:39Z Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole on dengue incidence in Bangladesh Banu, S. Guo, Y. Hu, W. Dale, P. Mackenzie, John Mengersen, K. Tong, S. Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. Several studies examined the role of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in dengue incidence. However, the role of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a coupled ocean atmosphere phenomenon in the Indian Ocean, which controls the summer monsoon rainfall in the Indian region, remains unexplored. Here, we examined the effects of ENSO and IOD on dengue incidence in Bangladesh. According to the wavelet coherence analysis, there was a very weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence, but a highly significant coherence between dengue incidence and local climate variables (temperature and rainfall). However, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) revealed that the association between dengue incidence and ENSO or IOD were comparatively stronger after adjustment for local climate variables, seasonality and trend. The estimated effects were nonlinear for both ENSO and IOD with higher relative risks at higher ENSO and IOD. The weak association between ENSO, IOD and dengue incidence might be driven by the stronger effects of local climate variables such as temperature and rainfall. Further research is required to disentangle these effects. 2015 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/25558 10.1038/srep16105 fulltext
spellingShingle Banu, S.
Guo, Y.
Hu, W.
Dale, P.
Mackenzie, John
Mengersen, K.
Tong, S.
Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole on dengue incidence in Bangladesh
title Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole on dengue incidence in Bangladesh
title_full Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole on dengue incidence in Bangladesh
title_fullStr Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole on dengue incidence in Bangladesh
title_full_unstemmed Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole on dengue incidence in Bangladesh
title_short Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole on dengue incidence in Bangladesh
title_sort impacts of el niño southern oscillation and indian ocean dipole on dengue incidence in bangladesh
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/25558