Commodity prices: how important are real and nominal shocks?

We consider the response of both nominal and real commodity prices on world markets to real and nominal shocks by hypothesizing that nominal shocks can permanently affect nominal commodity prices, but can have only temporary effects on real commodity prices. Real shocks, in contrast, can have perman...

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Main Authors: Bloch, Harry, Fraser, Patricia, MacDonald, Garry
Format: Journal Article
Published: Taylor & Francis 2012
Subjects:
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/24085
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author Bloch, Harry
Fraser, Patricia
MacDonald, Garry
author_facet Bloch, Harry
Fraser, Patricia
MacDonald, Garry
author_sort Bloch, Harry
building Curtin Institutional Repository
collection Online Access
description We consider the response of both nominal and real commodity prices on world markets to real and nominal shocks by hypothesizing that nominal shocks can permanently affect nominal commodity prices, but can have only temporary effects on real commodity prices. Real shocks, in contrast, can have permanent as well as temporary effects on both nominal and real commodity prices. When nominal and real shocks are decomposed in this manner, real shocks are found to be of much greater importance to the observed movements in commodity prices. We use the Blanchard and Quah (BQ, 1989) decomposition to obtain the permanent and temporary components of the real commodity price series and relate this to the rate of growth of world industrial production as an indicator of business cycle movements. The results suggest that the impact of the business cycle is self-stabilizing in that there is an initial positive effect on growth in commodity prices followed by a fully offsetting negative effect.
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spelling curtin-20.500.11937-240852017-09-13T13:58:22Z Commodity prices: how important are real and nominal shocks? Bloch, Harry Fraser, Patricia MacDonald, Garry commodity prices nominal and real shocks business cycle We consider the response of both nominal and real commodity prices on world markets to real and nominal shocks by hypothesizing that nominal shocks can permanently affect nominal commodity prices, but can have only temporary effects on real commodity prices. Real shocks, in contrast, can have permanent as well as temporary effects on both nominal and real commodity prices. When nominal and real shocks are decomposed in this manner, real shocks are found to be of much greater importance to the observed movements in commodity prices. We use the Blanchard and Quah (BQ, 1989) decomposition to obtain the permanent and temporary components of the real commodity price series and relate this to the rate of growth of world industrial production as an indicator of business cycle movements. The results suggest that the impact of the business cycle is self-stabilizing in that there is an initial positive effect on growth in commodity prices followed by a fully offsetting negative effect. 2012 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/24085 10.1080/00036846.2011.564144 Taylor & Francis restricted
spellingShingle commodity prices
nominal and real shocks
business cycle
Bloch, Harry
Fraser, Patricia
MacDonald, Garry
Commodity prices: how important are real and nominal shocks?
title Commodity prices: how important are real and nominal shocks?
title_full Commodity prices: how important are real and nominal shocks?
title_fullStr Commodity prices: how important are real and nominal shocks?
title_full_unstemmed Commodity prices: how important are real and nominal shocks?
title_short Commodity prices: how important are real and nominal shocks?
title_sort commodity prices: how important are real and nominal shocks?
topic commodity prices
nominal and real shocks
business cycle
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/24085