An application of ARIMA model to predict submicron particle concentrations from meteorological factors at a busy roadside in Hangzhou, China
In order to investigate the effect of meteorological factors on submicron particle (ultrafine particle (UFP) and particulate matter 1.0 (PM1.0)) concentrations under busy traffic conditions, a model study was conducted in Hangzhou, a city with a rapid increase of on-road vehicle fleet in China. A st...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2012
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/21876 |
| _version_ | 1848750713123897344 |
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| author | Jian, Le Zhao, Yun Zhu, P. Zhang, B. Dean, B. |
| author_facet | Jian, Le Zhao, Yun Zhu, P. Zhang, B. Dean, B. |
| author_sort | Jian, Le |
| building | Curtin Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | In order to investigate the effect of meteorological factors on submicron particle (ultrafine particle (UFP) and particulate matter 1.0 (PM1.0)) concentrations under busy traffic conditions, a model study was conducted in Hangzhou, a city with a rapid increase of on-road vehicle fleet in China. A statistical model, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), was used for this purpose. ARIMA results indicated that barometric pressure and wind velocity were anti-correlated and temperature and relative humidity were positively correlated with UFP number concentrations and PM1.0 mass concentrations (p<0.05). These data suggest that meteorological factors are significant predictors in forecasting roadside atmospheric concentrations of submicron particles. The findings provide baseline information on the potential effect of meteorological factors on UFP and PM1.0 levels on a busy viaduct with heavy traffic most of the day. This study also provides a framework that may be applied in future studies, with large scale time series data, to predict the impact of meteorological factors on submicron particle concentrations in fast-developing cities, in China. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T07:41:12Z |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | curtin-20.500.11937-21876 |
| institution | Curtin University Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T07:41:12Z |
| publishDate | 2012 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | curtin-20.500.11937-218762017-09-13T16:08:57Z An application of ARIMA model to predict submicron particle concentrations from meteorological factors at a busy roadside in Hangzhou, China Jian, Le Zhao, Yun Zhu, P. Zhang, B. Dean, B. In order to investigate the effect of meteorological factors on submicron particle (ultrafine particle (UFP) and particulate matter 1.0 (PM1.0)) concentrations under busy traffic conditions, a model study was conducted in Hangzhou, a city with a rapid increase of on-road vehicle fleet in China. A statistical model, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), was used for this purpose. ARIMA results indicated that barometric pressure and wind velocity were anti-correlated and temperature and relative humidity were positively correlated with UFP number concentrations and PM1.0 mass concentrations (p<0.05). These data suggest that meteorological factors are significant predictors in forecasting roadside atmospheric concentrations of submicron particles. The findings provide baseline information on the potential effect of meteorological factors on UFP and PM1.0 levels on a busy viaduct with heavy traffic most of the day. This study also provides a framework that may be applied in future studies, with large scale time series data, to predict the impact of meteorological factors on submicron particle concentrations in fast-developing cities, in China. 2012 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/21876 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.03.025 Elsevier restricted |
| spellingShingle | Jian, Le Zhao, Yun Zhu, P. Zhang, B. Dean, B. An application of ARIMA model to predict submicron particle concentrations from meteorological factors at a busy roadside in Hangzhou, China |
| title | An application of ARIMA model to predict submicron particle concentrations from meteorological factors at a busy roadside in Hangzhou, China |
| title_full | An application of ARIMA model to predict submicron particle concentrations from meteorological factors at a busy roadside in Hangzhou, China |
| title_fullStr | An application of ARIMA model to predict submicron particle concentrations from meteorological factors at a busy roadside in Hangzhou, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | An application of ARIMA model to predict submicron particle concentrations from meteorological factors at a busy roadside in Hangzhou, China |
| title_short | An application of ARIMA model to predict submicron particle concentrations from meteorological factors at a busy roadside in Hangzhou, China |
| title_sort | application of arima model to predict submicron particle concentrations from meteorological factors at a busy roadside in hangzhou, china |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/21876 |