When every drop counts: Analysis of Droughts in Brazil for the 1901-2013 period

To provide information useful in policy formulation and management of drought impacts in Brazil, in this study, a sequence of drought events based on monthly rainfall of 1901-2013 on ~ 25 km x 25 km grid are derived at 4 timescales that include short-timescales (3-month and 6-month) and medium to lo...

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Main Authors: Awange, Joseph, Mpelasoka, F., Goncalves, R.
Format: Journal Article
Published: Elsevier 2016
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/21690
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author Awange, Joseph
Mpelasoka, F.
Goncalves, R.
author_facet Awange, Joseph
Mpelasoka, F.
Goncalves, R.
author_sort Awange, Joseph
building Curtin Institutional Repository
collection Online Access
description To provide information useful in policy formulation and management of drought impacts in Brazil, in this study, a sequence of drought events based on monthly rainfall of 1901-2013 on ~ 25 km x 25 km grid are derived at 4 timescales that include short-timescales (3-month and 6-month) and medium to long-timescales (12-month and 24-month). Subsequently, probability of drought occurrences, intensity, duration and areal-extent are calculated. The probabilities of occurrence of severe and extreme droughts at short-timescales are 1 in 12 and 1 in 66 years, respectively, all over the country. At medium to long-timescales, the probability of severe droughts is about 1 in 20 years in northern Brazil, and 1 in 10 years in the south. The probabilities of extreme droughts are 1 in 9 and 1 in 12 years over northern Brazil and in the south, respectively. In general, no evidence of significant (a = 0.05) trend is detected in drought frequency, intensity, and duration over the last 11 decades (since 1901) at all the 4 timescales. The drought areal-extent show increasing trends of 3.4%/decade over Brazil for both 3-month and 6-month timescales. However, the trend increases for the 12-month and 24-month timescales are relatively smaller, i.e., 2.4%/decade and 0.5%/decade, respectively.
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spelling curtin-20.500.11937-216902018-06-13T07:31:45Z When every drop counts: Analysis of Droughts in Brazil for the 1901-2013 period Awange, Joseph Mpelasoka, F. Goncalves, R. To provide information useful in policy formulation and management of drought impacts in Brazil, in this study, a sequence of drought events based on monthly rainfall of 1901-2013 on ~ 25 km x 25 km grid are derived at 4 timescales that include short-timescales (3-month and 6-month) and medium to long-timescales (12-month and 24-month). Subsequently, probability of drought occurrences, intensity, duration and areal-extent are calculated. The probabilities of occurrence of severe and extreme droughts at short-timescales are 1 in 12 and 1 in 66 years, respectively, all over the country. At medium to long-timescales, the probability of severe droughts is about 1 in 20 years in northern Brazil, and 1 in 10 years in the south. The probabilities of extreme droughts are 1 in 9 and 1 in 12 years over northern Brazil and in the south, respectively. In general, no evidence of significant (a = 0.05) trend is detected in drought frequency, intensity, and duration over the last 11 decades (since 1901) at all the 4 timescales. The drought areal-extent show increasing trends of 3.4%/decade over Brazil for both 3-month and 6-month timescales. However, the trend increases for the 12-month and 24-month timescales are relatively smaller, i.e., 2.4%/decade and 0.5%/decade, respectively. 2016 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/21690 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.06.031 Elsevier fulltext
spellingShingle Awange, Joseph
Mpelasoka, F.
Goncalves, R.
When every drop counts: Analysis of Droughts in Brazil for the 1901-2013 period
title When every drop counts: Analysis of Droughts in Brazil for the 1901-2013 period
title_full When every drop counts: Analysis of Droughts in Brazil for the 1901-2013 period
title_fullStr When every drop counts: Analysis of Droughts in Brazil for the 1901-2013 period
title_full_unstemmed When every drop counts: Analysis of Droughts in Brazil for the 1901-2013 period
title_short When every drop counts: Analysis of Droughts in Brazil for the 1901-2013 period
title_sort when every drop counts: analysis of droughts in brazil for the 1901-2013 period
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/21690