A rework probability model: A quantitative assessment of rework occurrence in construction projects
© 2015 Taylor & Francis. Statistical methods for eliciting probability distributions were used to analyse the data collected from 78 construction professionals. The empirical distributions for rework costs were found to be non-Gaussian. Theoretical probability distributions were fitted to the re...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Published: |
Taylor and Francis Ltd.
2015
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/21107 |
| _version_ | 1848750498533867520 |
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| author | Simpeh, E. Ndihokubwayo, R. Love, Peter Thwala, W. |
| author_facet | Simpeh, E. Ndihokubwayo, R. Love, Peter Thwala, W. |
| author_sort | Simpeh, E. |
| building | Curtin Institutional Repository |
| collection | Online Access |
| description | © 2015 Taylor & Francis. Statistical methods for eliciting probability distributions were used to analyse the data collected from 78 construction professionals. The empirical distributions for rework costs were found to be non-Gaussian. Theoretical probability distributions were fitted to the rework data. Non-parametric tests were used to determine the goodness-of-fit of the selected probability distributions. The results of the goodness-of-fit tests revealed that generalized Pareto distribution provided the best fit for the dataset. Single probability points for rework from 1% to 10% were calculated. It was established that rework can make a significant contribution to a project's cost overrun. The mean total rework cost as a percentage of the original contract value was found to be 5.12%. For a mean total rework cost of 5.12% the likelihood that a project exceeds is 76%. The anticipation that rework will occur, using the probabilities that are derived, can enable a quantitative risk assessment to be undertaken, which will ultimately lead to identifying alternative solutions so as to avoid rework prior to the commencement of construction work. |
| first_indexed | 2025-11-14T07:37:47Z |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | curtin-20.500.11937-21107 |
| institution | Curtin University Malaysia |
| institution_category | Local University |
| last_indexed | 2025-11-14T07:37:47Z |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| publisher | Taylor and Francis Ltd. |
| recordtype | eprints |
| repository_type | Digital Repository |
| spelling | curtin-20.500.11937-211072017-09-13T13:43:08Z A rework probability model: A quantitative assessment of rework occurrence in construction projects Simpeh, E. Ndihokubwayo, R. Love, Peter Thwala, W. © 2015 Taylor & Francis. Statistical methods for eliciting probability distributions were used to analyse the data collected from 78 construction professionals. The empirical distributions for rework costs were found to be non-Gaussian. Theoretical probability distributions were fitted to the rework data. Non-parametric tests were used to determine the goodness-of-fit of the selected probability distributions. The results of the goodness-of-fit tests revealed that generalized Pareto distribution provided the best fit for the dataset. Single probability points for rework from 1% to 10% were calculated. It was established that rework can make a significant contribution to a project's cost overrun. The mean total rework cost as a percentage of the original contract value was found to be 5.12%. For a mean total rework cost of 5.12% the likelihood that a project exceeds is 76%. The anticipation that rework will occur, using the probabilities that are derived, can enable a quantitative risk assessment to be undertaken, which will ultimately lead to identifying alternative solutions so as to avoid rework prior to the commencement of construction work. 2015 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/21107 10.1080/15623599.2015.1033814 Taylor and Francis Ltd. restricted |
| spellingShingle | Simpeh, E. Ndihokubwayo, R. Love, Peter Thwala, W. A rework probability model: A quantitative assessment of rework occurrence in construction projects |
| title | A rework probability model: A quantitative assessment of rework occurrence in construction projects |
| title_full | A rework probability model: A quantitative assessment of rework occurrence in construction projects |
| title_fullStr | A rework probability model: A quantitative assessment of rework occurrence in construction projects |
| title_full_unstemmed | A rework probability model: A quantitative assessment of rework occurrence in construction projects |
| title_short | A rework probability model: A quantitative assessment of rework occurrence in construction projects |
| title_sort | rework probability model: a quantitative assessment of rework occurrence in construction projects |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/21107 |