Parametric mortality indexes: From index construction to hedging strategies

In this paper, we investigate the construction of mortality indexes using the time-varying parametersin common stochastic mortality models. We first study how existing models can be adapted to satisfy the new-data-invariant property, a property that is required to ensure the resulting mortality inde...

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Main Authors: Tan, C.I., Li, Ka Ki Jackie, Li, J.S., Balasooriya, U.
Format: Journal Article
Published: Elsevier BV 2014
Subjects:
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/18922
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author Tan, C.I.
Li, Ka Ki Jackie
Li, J.S.
Balasooriya, U.
author_facet Tan, C.I.
Li, Ka Ki Jackie
Li, J.S.
Balasooriya, U.
author_sort Tan, C.I.
building Curtin Institutional Repository
collection Online Access
description In this paper, we investigate the construction of mortality indexes using the time-varying parametersin common stochastic mortality models. We first study how existing models can be adapted to satisfy the new-data-invariant property, a property that is required to ensure the resulting mortality indexes are tractable by market participants. Among the collection of adapted models, we find that the adapted Model M7 (the Cairns–Blake–Dowd model with cohort and quadratic age effects) is the most suitable model for constructing mortality indexes. One basis of this conclusion is that the adapted model M7 gives the best fitting and forecasting performance when applied to data over the age range of 40–90 for various populations. Another basis is that the three time-varying parameters in it are highly interpretable and rich in information content. Based on the three indexes created from this model, one can write a standardized mortality derivative called K-forward, which can be used to hedge longevity risk exposures. Another contribution of this paper is a method called key K-duration that permits one to calibrate a longevity hedge formed by K-forward contracts. Our numerical illustrations indicate that a K-forward hedge has a potential to outperform a q-forward hedge in terms of the number of hedging instruments required.
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spelling curtin-20.500.11937-189222017-09-13T15:58:57Z Parametric mortality indexes: From index construction to hedging strategies Tan, C.I. Li, Ka Ki Jackie Li, J.S. Balasooriya, U. Cairns–Blake–Dowd model Hedging strategies Longevity risk reduction Securitization Mortality indexes In this paper, we investigate the construction of mortality indexes using the time-varying parametersin common stochastic mortality models. We first study how existing models can be adapted to satisfy the new-data-invariant property, a property that is required to ensure the resulting mortality indexes are tractable by market participants. Among the collection of adapted models, we find that the adapted Model M7 (the Cairns–Blake–Dowd model with cohort and quadratic age effects) is the most suitable model for constructing mortality indexes. One basis of this conclusion is that the adapted model M7 gives the best fitting and forecasting performance when applied to data over the age range of 40–90 for various populations. Another basis is that the three time-varying parameters in it are highly interpretable and rich in information content. Based on the three indexes created from this model, one can write a standardized mortality derivative called K-forward, which can be used to hedge longevity risk exposures. Another contribution of this paper is a method called key K-duration that permits one to calibrate a longevity hedge formed by K-forward contracts. Our numerical illustrations indicate that a K-forward hedge has a potential to outperform a q-forward hedge in terms of the number of hedging instruments required. 2014 Journal Article http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/18922 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2014.10.005 Elsevier BV restricted
spellingShingle Cairns–Blake–Dowd model
Hedging strategies
Longevity risk reduction
Securitization
Mortality indexes
Tan, C.I.
Li, Ka Ki Jackie
Li, J.S.
Balasooriya, U.
Parametric mortality indexes: From index construction to hedging strategies
title Parametric mortality indexes: From index construction to hedging strategies
title_full Parametric mortality indexes: From index construction to hedging strategies
title_fullStr Parametric mortality indexes: From index construction to hedging strategies
title_full_unstemmed Parametric mortality indexes: From index construction to hedging strategies
title_short Parametric mortality indexes: From index construction to hedging strategies
title_sort parametric mortality indexes: from index construction to hedging strategies
topic Cairns–Blake–Dowd model
Hedging strategies
Longevity risk reduction
Securitization
Mortality indexes
url http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/18922