ARIMA-GARCH model for estimation of value-at-risk and expected shortfall of some stocks in Indonesian capital market

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spelling 8463 https://intelek.unisza.edu.my/intelek/pages/view.php?ref=8463 https://intelek.unisza.edu.my/intelek/pages/search.php?search=!collection407072 Restricted Document Conference Conference Paper application/pdf 4 1.6 Adobe Acrobat Pro DC 20 Paper Capture Plug-in Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 6.1; Win64; x64) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML like Gecko) Chrome/80.0.3987.149 Safari/537.36 2020-04-15 03:48:25 1868-01-FH03-FPP-20-37013.pdf UniSZA Private Access ARIMA-GARCH model for estimation of value-at-risk and expected shortfall of some stocks in Indonesian capital market In stock investments, keep in mind the movements and risk of losses that may occur from investments made. One way to calculate risk is to use Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. The purpose of this research is to determine the amount Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall of selected stocks using the time series model approach. The data used in this study is the daily closing price of some stocks for three years. In the time series modeling process, the models used for predicting stock movements are Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) for the mean model, and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticty (GARCH) for the volatility model. The values of mean and variance obtained from the model are then used to calculate the Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall of each preferred stock. Based on the analysis, it was found that from the selected stocks, Bank Mandiri stocks had the lowest risk level and Mustika Ratu stocks had the highest risk level with the Value-at-Risk value of stocks generally smaller than the Expected Shortfall value 1st GCC International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, IEOM 2019; Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
spellingShingle ARIMA-GARCH model for estimation of value-at-risk and expected shortfall of some stocks in Indonesian capital market
summary In stock investments, keep in mind the movements and risk of losses that may occur from investments made. One way to calculate risk is to use Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. The purpose of this research is to determine the amount Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall of selected stocks using the time series model approach. The data used in this study is the daily closing price of some stocks for three years. In the time series modeling process, the models used for predicting stock movements are Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) for the mean model, and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticty (GARCH) for the volatility model. The values of mean and variance obtained from the model are then used to calculate the Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall of each preferred stock. Based on the analysis, it was found that from the selected stocks, Bank Mandiri stocks had the lowest risk level and Mustika Ratu stocks had the highest risk level with the Value-at-Risk value of stocks generally smaller than the Expected Shortfall value
title ARIMA-GARCH model for estimation of value-at-risk and expected shortfall of some stocks in Indonesian capital market
title_full ARIMA-GARCH model for estimation of value-at-risk and expected shortfall of some stocks in Indonesian capital market
title_fullStr ARIMA-GARCH model for estimation of value-at-risk and expected shortfall of some stocks in Indonesian capital market
title_full_unstemmed ARIMA-GARCH model for estimation of value-at-risk and expected shortfall of some stocks in Indonesian capital market
title_short ARIMA-GARCH model for estimation of value-at-risk and expected shortfall of some stocks in Indonesian capital market
title_sort arima-garch model for estimation of value-at-risk and expected shortfall of some stocks in indonesian capital market